MOSCOW ? Don?t expect Moscow-style protests in Kazakhstan, the big Central Asian country on Russia?s southwestern border, even though elections there are also approaching, the political system is similarly regulated and a violent conflict last month left at least 16 dead.
The party of President Nursultan Nazarbayev is expected to win the Jan. 15 parliamentary elections easily and by whatever percentage he desires, his critics say. And what exactly happened when striking oil workers were killed Dec. 16 in the city of Zhanaozen remains unclear: Earlier this week Nazarbayev extended the state of emergency there until the end of the month, limiting communication with the outside world.
The state of politics and the mood of the public in Kazakhstan, a Muslim country of 16 million, are of interest to the United States. The U.S. government depends on Kazakhstan for supply routes to Afghanistan to the south and wants to cultivate democracy and friendship in a part of the world where Russia and China are striving for influence. Money is at stake, too. American companies have invested billions in the oil industry.
Nazarbayev has exercised tight control over the country since the Soviet days of 1989, when he was head of the Communist Party. He became its first president after independence in 1991, and his admirers call him president for life. Human Rights Watch has described ?an atmosphere of quiet repression? in Kazakhstan, and documented abuses. No chances are being taken now: On Friday the nation?s Constitutional Council said the election was canceled for Zhanaozen?s 50,000 voters because of the state of emergency, which also has meant the banning of demonstrations along with the use of copying machines.
The violence erupted Dec. 16, when Kazakhs were celebrating the 20th anniversary of their independence from the Soviet Union. Striking oil workers ? many of whom had been fired ? had filled the main square of the western city of Zhanaozen for seven months, demanding raises, complaining they had been impoverished by the high cost of living, angry that the country?s resources were so unevenly distributed. The country has five billionaires on the Forbes list, including a Nazarbayev daughter and son-in-law.
Local officials at first said that police fired at the ground to disperse troublemakers who were interfering with the independence day celebration. But soon videos appeared on the Internet, showing police apparently firing at fleeing crowds.
Nazarbayev quickly intervened. He fired several officials, including his billionaire son-in-law, Timur Kulibayev, who supervised the state oil company connected to the labor dispute. The country?s prosecutor is investigating the police behavior, and applications have been distributed for fired strikers to apply for new jobs.
?In Russia, one of the reasons for the unexpected protests was because the authorities were relaxed,? said Grigory Golosov, an analyst speaking by telephone from St. Petersburg on Thursday. ?In Kazakhstan, they know that at least some of the people are not satisfied. Therefore, they will simply be more attentive to making the elections the way they want to have them.?
Source: http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/unlike-russia-kazakhstan-keeps-a-tight-lid-on-protests-ahead-of-elections/2012/01/05/gIQAF2HTeP_story.html
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